It is reported that Pakistan's economic crisis is worsening due to insufficient foreign exchange reserves. Many foreign traders in Pakistan market have recently encountered the same situation: the buyer said that the bank has no dollars and can only do L/C 180 days. Because banks are restricted from opening letters of credit for importers, buyers can't get dollars to pay for the goods, and a large number of containers full of imported goods are piled up in the country's ports. Facing the challenging market environment, Pakistan Shipping Agents Association (PSAA) recently warned that the shipping companies represented by PSAA will consider suspending their services to overseas countries. Concerned about the rapidly escalating situation, Pakistan Shipping Agents Association (PSAA) issued a notice to the country's national bank and government leaders, warning that the shipping companies represented by them would consider suspending the country's overseas services if they did not take immediate action to alleviate the crisis. The association pointed out: "If international trade is suspended, the country's economic situation will deteriorate." Some airlines and associations of foreign companies also said that the control measures implemented to protect the dwindling foreign exchange reserves prevented them from repatriating US dollars. The person in charge said that factories such as textile manufacturers are closing or shortening their business hours to save energy and resources.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is optimistic about the demand prospect of the oil market. Fatih Birol, director of IEA, said on 5th that China's economy may rebound stronger than expected, thus boosting the demand for oil and gas. It is estimated that the global oil demand will increase by nearly 2 million barrels this year, and the demand in China is expected to reach about half of this expectation. Overall, the oil market demand expectation has improved. Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst of CITIC Futures, told reporters that China's oil demand repair began to be realized.

In 2022, the chemical fiber industry is faced with such complex situations as repeated global epidemics, complicated geopolitical factors, slow recovery of the world economy, drastic fluctuations in energy and raw material prices, and industrial chain restructuring, which makes the price increase of some commodities appear linkage effect in the first half of 2022. According to the current market trend, the rise in the past few days is not due to the improvement of the market. Relatively speaking, a good start should be experienced by every raw material. In the case that the market has not yet fully started, polyester has already entered the rising channel. Four-sided elastic fabrics, as a market product in online celebrity, are still the best-selling products in the minds of textile bosses, although their popularity was not good last year. The increase in cost indicates that the price of spandex yarn will also increase with the increase in cost in the short term. From this point of view, the price increase of spandex yarn has become a foregone conclusion, but because the amount of spandex yarn in textile fabrics is not large, the price increase space will be limited. Apart from the year before last year, the price of spandex yarn has been at a relatively stable price. Assuming that there is no continuous speculation by spandex manufacturers, the price of spandex yarn will remain stable in the later period.

According to the cotton outlook data, the commercial inventory of cotton was 4.624 million tons by the end of December, an increase of 939,300 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 935,800 tons from the same period last year. Commercial inventory of cotton has been at the lowest point in nearly five years for three consecutive months. Mainly due to the influence of the external environment, the cotton processing progress is slow, which makes the cotton commercial inventory increase slightly, and the overall level is at a historically low level, but the supply in 2022 is sufficient. In the downstream market, as of the end of December, the inventory of cotton industry was 551,200 tons, an increase of 66,300 tons from the previous month. The inventory of cotton industry continued to rise, mainly due to the pre-holiday stocking of enterprises before the Spring Festival. As of the end of December, the yarn inventory was 17.48 days, a decrease of 16.54 days from the previous month; The inventory of grey cloth was 33.53 days, a decrease of 5.55 days from the previous month. Judging from the inventory of finished products, the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth declined obviously this month. In December, the downstream market warmed up, the textile enterprises were in good condition, and traders also made a lot of purchases.

Twisting is to make the two sections of the sliver rotate relatively, at this time, the fibers in the sliver that were originally parallel to the yarn axis are inclined into a helix. For short fibers, twisting is mainly to improve the strength of the yarn. The twisting of filament can not only improve the strength of yarn, but also produce some effects. The amount of yarn twist and the matching of yarn twist direction and twist in fabric have great influence on the appearance and performance of products.

For polyester factories, the pressure on the cost side still exists, and the possibility of rising crude oil still exists. Investment institutions represented by Goldman Sachs bet that Asian economies will completely lift the COVID-19 restrictions and stimulate demand. It is noteworthy that while the demand is rising, the global oil supply is facing a reduction. It also means that the global oil supply will be tense in 2023. This also makes many market institutions optimistic about the international oil price this year. At present, due to the reality of low inventory, most polyester factories are still waiting for stability, but some factories have room for negotiation. Therefore, in the short term, in this final charge, polyester prices are still expected to give preferential treatment, but after the start of the year, there will be great expectations for a "good start" market.

On January 9th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.8265, the highest since August 22nd, 2022, with an increase of 647 basis points, the largest increase since December 2nd, 2022. Both onshore and offshore RMB rose above 6.8. Since the beginning of this year, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by more than 2%, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 1.7%. With the appreciation of the RMB, we have confidence in the future of China, and more capital will be invested in China to promote a virtuous circle of the economy. Only then will everyone take out their savings for consumption, and the market demand will pick up.

Towards the end of the year, there will be a wave of Spring Festival travel rush workers returning to their hometowns, especially in the textile industry this year, which is really expected. First of all, the textile industry will have a long rest time during the Spring Festival. Most of the workers in the textile industry are migrant workers from all over the country. Because of the need of textile production, they usually have very little rest and vacation, so they will stay in their hometown during the rare Spring Festival. This also has an impact on the production time of the textile industry. Generally, the rest time of the textile industry during the Spring Festival is about one month. This is only the rest time. If we add the time for cleaning, refurbishing and recruiting factory machines, the textile industry will stop production for more than a month. Before the Spring Festival, the operating rate has been difficult to improve, and the turning point of the market still needs to be observed. From the present stage, although the weaving market has ushered in a favorable post-epidemic era, and confidence has been boosted, we can't ignore that it is difficult to improve the operating rate of enterprises in the short term, and the probability of "retaliatory" consumption in terminals is not high. Holiday enterprises have no time to pay attention to the trend of raw materials for the time being, and only care about when employees can return to work in Yangkang to deliver the previous orders. Many textile manufacturers with missing orders will choose to take an early holiday for the New Year to adjust their state and fight again next year! The Year of the Tiger is coming to an end, and the situation of textile enterprises is a bit embarrassing. As for when the market will take a fundamental turning point, further observation is needed in the coming year.