Over the past two weeks, the global textile supply chain has been hit by two “earthquake‑level” shocks – bunker fuel prices have soared nearly 70%, and after sharp volatility, crude oil prices have settled on a significantly higher floor. The most worrying signal for the industry has now appeared: textile raw materials have officially entered a new pricing era where prices rise easily but fall reluctantly.

Why “only up, no down”?
Rigid cost shift upward – For every 10% rise in fuel, the cost of chemical fiber raw materials increases by about 6–8%. With fuel up 70%, the theoretical cost floor for polyester, nylon, viscose and other major textile raw materials has been permanently raised.

Oil prices won’t return to the old normal – Even if the Strait of Hormuz situation eases in the short term, demining, naval escorts, insurance recovery and rebuilding shipping confidence will take a long time. The International Energy Agency forecasts that oil prices will stay in the 85–95 USD/barrel range for the long term – nearly 40% higher than the 2025 level.

Market psychology has hardened – Downstream mills generally accept that “prices will never go back to where they were”. Small price increases now actually trigger stocking demand, creating a self‑reinforcing upward spiral.

What this means for you
The longer you wait, the higher the cost – Room for prices to correct is extremely limited. Hesitation will only lead to higher procurement costs.

The longer you wait, the longer the lead time – Ocean freight rates keep climbing, and the vessel‑space crunch has lengthened from the usual 2–3 weeks to 5–8 weeks. With the European summer holidays and the year‑end peak season ahead, logistics lead times will be very unstable for the next three months.

RUNTEKS’ commitment – you don’t have to face this alone.Facing this “easy‑up, hard‑down” market, we have built three lines of defence for you.